Richard North, EUReferendum, has posted about ‘matters Oslo’, Cameron’s future, ‘yesterdays men’ (Messrs. Davis and Fox) and the inability of Ukip to have any importance in ‘matters withdrawal’.
We had been led to believe that David Cameron would be making a major speech this year, setting out his ‘vision’ of the relationship twixt the European Union and the UK, but we then informed by some in the media that this would not happen until next year. We now see that it may be next week or that it might be after Christmas – although how long after Christmas the report does not specify.
This article in the FT by George Parker offers both ‘dream’ and ‘nightmare’ scenarios for both Cameron and MilibandE – on which I pass no comment. If Cameron still believes he can ‘cherry-pick’ those powers he wishes to repatriate – even assuming he would be able to get a ‘hearing’, which is extremely unlikely – then a portent of what would await him comes with the warning from Cecilia Malmström where the mass opt-out of more than 130 policies to tackle cross-border terrorism and crime, including the European arrest warrant, is concerned. Ms Malmström is quoted as stating that “If they [UK] do choose to opt out of – for instance, from the arrest warrant – then they will have to seek bilateral arrangements with all 26 member states and this will be on UK expenses”.
Where ‘matters renegotiate’ are concerned there are those who believe that Article 48 (TEU) can be used, whereas others – headed by Richard North – have shown that the only method by which new terms of membership can be renegotiated is by invoking Article 50, whereby notice is given of withdrawal and then negotiations for new terms of membership are promptly commenced. It is therefore reasonable to assume that until Cameron recognizes and accepts the Article 50 route, whatever he is ‘cooking up’ in his pot is going to look and taste completely unpalatable, not only to the public but to his party. Watching this subject unfold, one which Cameron has more than once attempted to ‘park’ out of public and his party’s view, is going to present watchers with a ‘tragic comedy’ in that I can foresee both despair and humour in equal measure – despair at seeing one ill-equiped for the task in hand fail yet again; and humour in seeing once again Cameron falling flat on his face. Still, Cameron will be able to console himself with the knowledge that the sheep safely corralled in his Witney field would no doubt re-elect him with an increased majority.
We are presently inundated with opinion polls and in their lifespan now and then there appears a ‘rogue’ poll – and this would seem to be one such, although Smithson”s caveat regarding accuracy must be noted. What it does show though is 2 findings; (a) that of two parties, neither of whom appears to have the slightest idea about withdrawal from the European Union, one has managed a lead over the other of 10%; and (b) that (a) shows the superficial knowledge of those polled about ‘politics’ and the EU.
And therein lies the problem for the hopes of those who will be campaigning for a ‘No’ vote, come any referendum; unless that campaign is properly managed!